Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that divided the nation and triggered disorder, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the political, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unification has masked the lack of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Many are for or against the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in academia but hardly any elected officials or activists want to engage even with the essentials. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer supports unification or the current situation. Each composes two pieces that aim for neutrality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and societal figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions range over identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said the writer. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens say they support unification but oppose increased taxation or adopting a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid perspectives, he said. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will eventually lose but each side has possesses valuable insights to learn from the opposing arguments."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, stated O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
